The true math behind economics

SPINNING HYPERINFLATION AT 3.268 TURNS As a benchmark of Venezuela’s purchasing power for many decades, our “4.30” represents an ideal gauge to measure the degree of embezzlement gulped down by the current regime since 1999. In fact, the monetary dilution of the past 18 years has been so many times greater than “4.30,” we need…

HIPERINFLACIÓN A 3.268 REVOLUCIONES Como parámetro del poder adquisitivo que disfrutó Venezuela durante décadas, el “4,30”, representa un indicador ideal para medir el grado de malversación impulsado por el régimen actual desde 1999. De hecho, la dilución monetaria de los últimos 18 años ha sido tantas veces mayor al “4.30”, que necesitamos usar una escala…

PREDATOR-PREY ECONOMICS -SUMMARY RELOADED! If Predator-Prey Economics formally existed as a field of study, it would address human economic interactions from the perspective of Resource Competition Dynamics. Predator-prey dynamics have been used since at least 1967 to model the growth cycle and more recently, Debt vs Capital, its most intuitive use considering that the former must feed on the latter…

Typically, the Minsky Long Cycle ends with Trade retreating until it reaches global scale, while present-day “Trade War Warriors” such as Trump, Le Pen, Farage and other isolationists  begin winning elections worldwide. Hence why, in my view,  we’ll see the collapse of our current Globalization economic model over 2016 and 2017. Yet, as per the essay…

While preparing a summary for a client, I went over presentations I gave, ahead of “The Great Recession.” Among them,I found a Veneconomia January 2008 Conference describing what could pass for January 2016. The material was so predictive then, you might as well check its contents…just, in case! The link again is Veneconomia January 2008…

STATIC ASSUMPTIONS CAN ONLY HAPHAZARDLY DESCRIBE THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF HUMAN ECONOMIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE IRON GATES OF FATE, THE SEEDS OF TIME WERE SOWN​ -WITH SOUND OR “The study of money, above all other fields in economics, is one in which complexity is used to disguise truth or to evade truth, not to reveal…

EVEN AS “TED” TALKS… A-WHOLE LOT OF SHAKING GOING ON

”CHINA’S PARTY ISN’T OVER” (WSJ)?

IT’S BEEN “GROUNDHOG DECADE” SINCE 1971

THE 2016 SOLUTION TO ZENO’S PARADOX

THE DISCOUNT-RATE PYRAMID SCHEME

PREDATOR-PREY ECONOMICS As unlimited bailouts by central banks/governments make “unlimited predation” possible, the Predator (Debt) to Prey (GDP) Ratio escalates exponentially after each cycle oscillation. Then, as would be expected in unstable system dynamics, the patterns keep the system moving away from equilibrium after any initial shock until it eventually breaks.

Click HISTORY DOESN’T JUST RHYME, IT REPEATS!

MANAGING VOLATILITY AS AN ASSET CLASS: FIVE QUESTIONS    

Click THE FIXED-INCOME “MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES ERA” DRAWS TO AN END

Regardless of experiencing a 25% GDP Decay since 2007 (Table 1, Page 3 &updated graph, above), the USD has appreciated by 15% since 2011 (DTWEXM), as the US decreased its oil imports by 60%. Recently, the US became once again, the world’s largest oil producer, while oil imports have dropped from a 2006 high of…

INFORMATION ASYMMETRY BY DESIGN

07-05-2013Oswaldo Lairet – Sequoian Financial Group Research Summary: Since our start in 2005, we have sought to keep reports entertaining, even while including the charts, links, mathematical proofs or documentation supporting our opinions.  Like our 2006 and 2007 reports, this one is meant to warn you in advance of potential market trouble. This time, however, we set up a…

This month, investors absorbed some important news announcements, among them: the nationalization of the last four oil fields, a 35% drop in Central Bank Reserves, the IMF-withdrawal statement and the threat to nationalize the banking industry. Below we will try to figuratively deconstruct what these messages may mean for all “three” sides of the fence.…

Collateralized Debt Obligations, or CDOs for short can be created from many types of collateral, but the most popular lately are CDOs from MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities). The idea is to create some higher risk assets and some much safer ones, slicing up the MBS into what are called equity, mezzanine and investment-grade bonds. The…

Tuesday, when markets were down huge, Bloomberg Television inquired what we thought of the PDVSA bond plunge of the past few weeks. We pointed out that PDVSA bonds had done nothing but follow the rest of Venezuela’s external debt bonds down in price. If you look at the first graph below, you will notice that…